No. 23 Utah at No. 15 BYU prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

A mere 40 miles separates the schools, but the football programs at BYU and Utah are even closer than that. Their head coaches have worked together at one of the universities and they each attended and played for other university.

It is a Top 25 matchup featuring No. 15 BYU (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) and No. 23 Utah (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) in Provo Saturday. The ramifications are more than simply bragging rights within the state of Utah. Each is battling to keep pace with Cincinnati and Texas Tech atop the Big 12. Because Utah lost to Texas Tech back in Week 4, a loss to BYU this weekend eliminates them from the Big 12 Title Game and a spot at the college football playoff. A loss for BYU does not eliminate them this weekend but with games upcoming at Iowa State, at Texas Tech, and at Cincinnati still to be played, winning Saturday at home against the Utes looks to be imperative.

Lets dive into the schools on both sides of the ball and see what the schemes, the numbers, and their top players tell us.

Game Details and How to Watch No. 23 Utah at No. 15 BYU

• Date: Saturday, October 18, 2025
• Time: 8:00PM Eastern
• Site: LaVell Edwards Stadium
• City: Provo, UT
• TV/Streaming: Fox

Game Odds for No. 23 Utah at No. 15 BYU

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Utah Utes (-170), BYU Cougars (+142)
• Spread: Utah -3.5 (-108)
• Total: 49.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Utah Utes

Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham
2025 Record: 5-1
Offense Ranking: 33
Defense Ranking: 6
Strength of Schedule: 53

The 2025 Utah Utes have surged to a 5-1 start, ranking 16th in SP+ with a Top 10 efficiency profile on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Utah thrives on sustained drives and red zone execution, ranking 5th nationally in success rate (53.4%) and 3rd in points per scoring opportunity (5.68) while allowing a sterling 1.3% pressure rate. Defensively, Morgan Scalley’s group is holding opponents to 4.68 yards per play (23rd) with a 34.8% success rate (18th) and is dominating on passing downs ranking 11th in EPA/pass. Kyle Whittingham’s veteran squad is currently sporting a very encouraging 32% chance to make the CFP according to SP+.

The Utah Utes Offense

The Utah offense has been one of the most efficient in the nation, ranking 5th nationally in overall success rate (53.4%) and 3rd in down set conversion rate (83.8%). The Utes dominate on the ground with a 55.3% rushing success rate (2nd nationally) and an elite offensive line that allows pressure on just 1.3% of dropbacks (7th) thanks in large part to their high-end NFL Draft caliber tackle duo of Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu. Quarterback play has been highly efficient thanks to Devon Dampier, who is sporting a 72.6% completion rate (7th) and 10.1 adjusted net yards per attempt, complementing a red zone attack that converts 86.2% of trips into touchdowns. Despite lacking explosive plays, Utah’s precision, balance, and elite short-yardage execution have powered one of the most consistently productive and mistake-free offenses in college football.

Utah Player to Watch on Offense: QB Devon Dampier

A seasoned dual-threat leader, Devon Dampier is completing 71.5% of his passes for 1,131 yards and 11 touchdowns while maintaining a strong 83.2 QBR. He’s been efficient through the air, averaging 9.6 yards per completion with a low 1.8% sack rate, showcasing poise and quick decision-making in the pocket. On the ground Dampier is lethal, recording 393 yards and five touchdowns on 6.34 yards per carry with a 51.6% rushing success rate. His combination of precision passing and mobility has made him the engine of the offense and a consistent chain-mover utilizing both designed runs and scramble situations.

The Utah Utes Defense

The Utah defense remains one of the nation’s most physical and disciplined units, ranking 6th nationally in Defensive SP+ and holding opponents to just 4.68 yards per play (23rd). Morgan Scalley’s group excels in situational football, limiting foes to a 34.8% success rate (18th) and allowing touchdowns on only 50% of red zone trips. The Utes generate steady disruption with a 34.5% pressure rate (34th) and 8.2% sack rate (16th), anchored by a defensive line that produces a 7.4% havoc rate, well above the national average. Combining stout run fits with Top 10 marks in opponent completion percentage (54.0%), Utah’s defense continues to set the tone for the program’s trademark toughness and efficiency.

Utah Player to Watch on Defense: Edge John Henry Daley

Defensive end John Henry Daley has been a wrecking ball for Utah, tallying 33 tackles, 12 havoc plays, and an elite 8.0 sacks through six games. His pass-rush production ranks among the best in the country, generating 22 pressures on 106 rushes for a 20.8% pressure rate and six sacks created, while also forcing two fumbles. Daley’s combination of power and burst has anchored a defensive line that thrives on disruption, with a 94.3% tackle rate and strong run-stopping consistency. His relentless motor and ability to win quickly off the edge have made him the centerpiece of Utah’s defensive identity.

BYU Cougars

Head Coach: Kalani Sitake
2025 Record: 6-0
Offense Ranking: 40
Defense Ranking: 15
Strength of Schedule: 38

The BYU Cougars are off to a 6–0 start and rank 23rd nationally in SP+, powered by a balanced offense (40th Off. SP+) and a Top 15 defense (15th Def. SP+). Offensively, BYU averages 6.6 yards per play (26th) and 3.17 points per drive (21st), blending an efficient ground game (5.9 YPC, 25th) with a combustible pass attack that gains 20+ yards on 18.8% of completions. Defensively, DC Jay Hill’s unit has been stingy, limiting opponents to just 4.23 yards per play (11th) and a 35.8% success rate (22nd) while forcing 10 turnovers. With elite defensive efficiency (11th EPA/Play) and a steady offense, Kalani Sitake’s squad has a 17% chance of winning the Big-12 and 37% chance of making the CFP.

The BYU Cougars Offense

The BYU offense is humming once again despite starting a true freshman at QB, ranking 40th in SP+ and averaging 6.62 yards per play with a 48.0% success rate (24th nationally). The Cougars’ balanced attack thrives on the ground, posting 5.9 yards per rush (25th) with a 49.8% rushing success rate, while also excelling in pass protection with just a 1.6% pressure rate allowed (20th). Through the air, BYU averages 7.8 yards per dropback and an impressive 10.6 adjusted net yards per attempt, showcasing their ability to generate explosive plays on standard downs (56.4% SD success rate, 11th). Despite a deliberate pace (29.5 seconds per play, 21st), Aaron Roderick’s offense ranks 21st in points per drive (3.17) and is handling business effectively for the 6-0 Cougars.

BYU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Bear Bachmeier

True freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has been a steady hand under center for BYU despite his lack of experience, completing 63.2% of his passes for 1,220 yards and an 8-to-3 TD-INT ratio through six starts. He’s averaging 9.4 adjusted net yards per attempt with a commendable 73.8 Total QBR, showing promise on rhythm throws and when extending plays outside structure. As a runner, Bachmeier adds a dynamic element with 315 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns, converting 48.5% of his carries successfully and generating 18.3% explosive runs despite facing pressure on over 20% of dropbacks. His balance of accuracy, mobility, and toughness under pressure has given BYU’s offense a consistent spark both through the air and on the ground.

The BYU Cougars Defense

The BYU defense profiles as a Top 15 unit nationally, ranking 15th in SP+ while holding opponents to just 4.23 yards per play (11th) and a 35.8% success rate (22nd). They excel in limiting explosive plays, allowing gains of 20+ yards on only 4.0% of snaps (11th), and are particularly strong in pass defense, giving up just 4.7 yards per dropback (13th) with a 22.1 defensive QBR (2nd nationally). Their run defense has been stout as well, surrendering 3.8 yards per carry (14th) while maintaining a 38.7% rushing success rate. Coordinated by DC Jay Hill, the Cougars’ disciplined, assignment-sound approach and opportunistic playmaking have turned them into one of college football’s most respected defensive units.

BYU Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Isaian Glasker

A versatile defender who excels in multiple phases, Isaiah Glasker has recorded 18 tackles (11 solo) with an excellent 85.7% tackle rate and 11 total havoc plays. His blend of athleticism and power shows up in the backfield, where he has tallied 6.0 tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks, and two interceptions with two pass breakups, displaying rare positional malleability for an outside linebacker. As a pass rusher, Glasker has generated 8 pressures on 38 rushes (21.1%), with 2 sacks created and a forced fumble, ranking among the team’s most efficient disruptors. His ability to impact all three phases—rush, coverage, and pursuit—has made him a cornerstone in Jay Hill’s aggressive, playmaking defensive scheme.

No. 23 Utah at No. 15 BYU team stats, betting trends

• Utah has won its last 3 games when a road favorite
• BYU has covered the Spread in 4 of its last 5 games as an underdog
• The Over is 7-3 in Utah’s last 10 games

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Dallen Bentley OVER 36.5 receiving yards

Utah is happy to maul inferior defenses with their elite offensive line when the opportunity presents itself, which was the case last week when the Utes annihilated ASU 42-10 last week with backup QB Jeff Sims playing the entire game. Utah completed just 9 passes as they salted the game away, with Bentley reeling in 2-of-4 passes for 24 yards. However, in his previous three games, which were more competitive than their ASU evisceration, Bentley received 20 targets, catching 15 passes for 180 yards with his lowest game total being 46 yards. He and Ryan Davis are literally the only pass game options that QB Dampier who are on the field for 60%+ of the team pass snaps. Utah will not be able to bulldoze BYU’s formidable run defense that’s allowing just 3.8 YPC on the year. I expect Dallen Bentley to receive 5+ targets and clear his 36.5 Receiving Yards line, which was in the 45.5 range last week.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 23 Utah and No. 15 BYU

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the BYU Cougars at +3.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 49.5.

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