What Utah’s position in first College Football Playoff rankings means for the Utes’ postseason aspirations

The first College Football Playoff rankings came as a welcomed surprise to Utah football fans.

The Utes (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) checked in at No. 13 in the initial CFP rankings released Tuesday night, four spots higher than their position in the Associated Press Top 25 poll and one spot shy of cracking the coveted top 12.

At face value, it would appear Utah’s on the cusp of being considered one of the committee’s playoff teams, given the top 12 will make up this season’s bracket, heading down the stretch of regular season action.

In reality, it’ll require more than a one-spot bump in the final December rankings for the Utes to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Technically, the 12 playoff teams will consist of the five highest-ranked conference champions. The top four seeds will have byes for the first round, while the No. 5 seed takes on the No. 12 seed in the opening round. Unlike last year, though, the conference champions will not be guaranteed first-round byes — only the four highest-ranked teams will get that designation.

Presumably, that means the winner of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC, along with the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, will earn automatic bids and the other seven spots will be filled by whichever teams the selection committee sees fit.

When looking at the initial CFP rankings that were recently released, anyone with half an understanding of what the power conferences look like in 2025 could recognize that the selection committee didn’t rank a team from the ACC or Group of 5 in the initial top 12. That means, if the season were to end today (and thank goodness it can’t since none of the conference champions have been decided yet), the ACC’s projected champion, Virginia, and the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team, Memphis, would occupy the No. 11 and No. 12 seed, respectively, instead of the two teams that were placed in those spots on Tuesday — Oklahoma and Texas.

Because the Longhorns (No. 11) and Sooners (No. 12) were placed ahead of the Utes in the initial rankings, Utah would probably prefer if those two, plus another closely-ranked playoff contender like Notre Dame or Oregon, stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, while Kyle Whittingham and company took care of business on their end in hopes of potentially leapfrogging their way into the final 12-team bracket.

Making an appearance in the Big 12 championship game in December would certainly help the Utes’ cause, though it might not be necessary.

In the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s reveal, the narrative surrounding the Big 12 was that only its champion would be deserving of a spot in the College Football Playoff. It was thought that Texas Tech’s setback to Arizona State was a sign of cannibalization; the conference would only be hurting itself if its top teams didn’t dominate in the regular season.

Yet, not only did two Big 12 teams make it into the top 10, the committee put another just on the outside of the top 12 looking in, indicating the league could very well get multiple teams into the playoff if all goes right for Texas Tech, BYU and Utah.

Utah will still need help from some of its league counterparts in order to get into the Big 12 championship game, but the path to an automatic bid into the playoff exists nonetheless.

All that the Utes can really focus on, though, is taking care of their own business.

Utah’s last three games of November are at Baylor (Nov. 15), home against Kansas State (Nov. 22) and at Kansas (Nov. 28). For what it’s worth, FPI gives the Utes the best chance of any Big 12 team to win out at 44.6%.

Elsewhere, the Week 11 showdown between BYU and Texas Tech in Lubbock, Texas, will be one that Utah fans keep a close eye on so they can see how it shakes up the Big 12 hierarchy. The Cougars also have an important date with Cincinnati on Nov. 22. The Bearcats could still only have one league loss on their résumé by that point should they get by Arizona in a home game on Nov. 15.

The Red Raiders finish the season at home against UCF (Nov. 15) and at West Virginia (Nov. 29) after Saturday’s showdown with BYU.

Rankings based on ESPN FPI

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