2025 Big 12 Championship Game scenarios: Tiebreakers, paths for Texas Tech, BYU, Utah and more contenders

There remains a half-dozen teams in the race to reach the Big 12 Championship Game next month with the final two weeks of the regular season determining who faces off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas with a College Football Playoff bid on the line.

Given this week’s new rankings from the playoff selection committee, there’s a scenario in which BYU wins a rematch over one-loss Texas Tech in the title game which would potentially place two Big 12 competitors in the 12-team bracket.

Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire backed BYU’s resume in the at-large discussion earlier this month after the Red Raiders’ win, pounding the table for conference strength.

Cincinnati squandered a golden opportunity for Saturday’s showdown with BYU to be a winner-take-all scenario entering the season’s final weekend after losing to Arizona at home. That’s consecutive losses for the Bearcats who — to begin November — controlled their own destiny in the league title discussion.

Bowl projections: Georgia moves into first-round bye in College Football Playoff, Oklahoma enters bracket

Brad Crawford

Tiebreakers explained

Here’s the Big 12’s tiebreaker procedure, enacted in 2024, that will be used in determining the two teams who play at AT&T Stadium in December in the event of a two-team tie for second:

• A. Head-to-head competition among the two tied teams. 
• B. Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams. 
• C. Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams. 
• D. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., the strength of conference schedule). 
• E. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins — only one win against a team from the FCS or lower division will be counted annually. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules shall not be included. 
• F. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games. 
• G. Coin toss 

If there are multi-team ties in the Big 12, which is a high-probability this season, the following procedure will be followed:

• A. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams — if all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie). Also, if all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker. 
• B. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie. 
• C. Record of the three (or more) tied teams against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams. 
• D. Record of the three (or more) tied teams based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule) 
• E. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: Only one win against a team from the FCS or lower division will be counted.

Texas Tech (10-1, 7-1)

The most dominant team in the conference up to this point, the only blemish on the resume for the Red Raiders was a close loss at Arizona State.

• If the Red Raiders beat West Virginia, they’re in the Big 12 Championship Game.
• If the Red Raiders lose to West Virginia, BYU beats Cincinnati and UCF and Arizona State beats Colorado and Arizona, Texas Tech misses a Big 12 Championship Game appearance.

BYU (9-1, 6-1)

You want to be in control of your own destiny at this point and the Cougars hold that distinction.

• If the Cougars beat Cincinnati and UCF, they’re in the Big 12 Championship Game.
• If the Cougars lose to Cincinnati and beats UCF, they’re still in good shape to reach the Big 12 Championship Game with a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over Utah. In most scenarios for the four two-loss teams behind BYU in the conference standings, they need the Cougars to lose out.

Utah (8-2, 5-2)

While the Utes are in the at-large playoff conversation, losses this season to both of the Big 12’s frontrunners nullify most hopes of reaching the conference title game due to tiebreaker disadvantages.

• If the Utes beat Kansas State and Kansas, they’re in the Big 12 Championship Game if BYU loses to Cincinnati and UCF and Cincinnati loses to TCU. Utah holds a tiebreaker edge over the Bearcats with a head-to-head win.

Willie Fritz’s team needs chaos, which would start with Colorado upsetting Arizona State and Kansas State taking out Utah this weekend.

• If the Cougars beat TCU and Baylor, they would need BYU to lose twice along with Utah, Cincinnati, and Arizona State each losing once to reach the Big 12 Championship Game.

Arizona State (7-3, 5-2)

Banged up over the second half of the season, the Sun Devils’ bid to repeat as conference champions and get to the playoff is slim.

• If the Sun Devils beat Colorado and Arizona, they would need West Virginia to beat Texas Tech along with Utah and Cincinnati to each suffer another loss. That would guarantee a spot for Arizona State in the title game since the Sun Devils own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Red Raiders.

Cincinnati (7-3, 5-2)

Last week’s loss to Arizona is one the Bearcats could not afford with BYU looming. That torched just about every positive scenario that could’ve unfolded for Cincinnati.

• If the Bearcats beat BYU and TCU, they would need two-loss Arizona State, Houston and Utah to each suffer another setback to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. That would put Cincinnati in the final against Texas Tech since the Bearcats would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over BYU.