NCAA Tournament West Region: No. 8 Villanova Wildcats vs No. 9 Utah State Aggies. First Round of March Madness.

Where: Viejas Arena (San Diego, CA)

When: Friday, March 20 at 4:10 PM EST

How to Watch: TNT

FanDuel Betting Odds: Villanova +1.5 (subject to change)

NET Rankings: Villanova 35, Utah State 26

KenPom: Villanova 33, Utah State 30

Advertisement

Torvik: Villanova 36, Utah State 29

About the Aggies: Utah State was selected to finish second in the Mountain West Conference Preseason Poll, but finished in sole possession of first at 28-6 (15-5). The Aggies then defeated San Diego State, who finished in second and was picked first in the preseason, 73-62 in the conference championship.

Leading the Aggies is Jerrod Calhoun, the recently-named Mountain West Coach of the Year. The 44-year-old is in his second year in Logan after a seven-year stint at Youngstown State. Calhoun is arguably the hottest name in the couching carousel, with rumors of him being the new Cincinnati coach once this tournament run is done.

Sitting at the top of the scouting report is Mason Falslev, who was named Mountain West Player of the Year. The 6’4” junior was also named to the All-Mountain West First Team and All-Defensive Team. Falslev has spent his entire career with the Aggies, despite being guaranteed to have plenty of interest elsewhere. Falslev averages 15.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.9 steals on 51.9% from the floor and 41.7% from three-point range.

Advertisement

Falslev’s running mate is MJ Collins Jr., who leads the team in scoring at 17.6 points per contest. The senior transfer from Vanderbilt shoots an efficient 49.5% from the floor and 37.2% from deep. The 6’4” guard was selected as part of the All-Mountain West Second team. Collins Jr. and Falslev are the only two Aggies who average in double figures.

Coming in at third in scoring at 9.3 points per game is the Mountain West Sixth Man of the Year, Karson Templin. The 6’9” junior forward shoots 53.9% from the field and 36.5% from three. Templin is part of a four-man frontcourt rotation with freshman Adlan Elamin, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi transfer Garry Clark and Utah transfer Zach Keller.

The last of the rotation players is starting guard Drake Allen, who scored 13 points in the championship against the Aztecs on 5/10 from the floor. The 6’5” senior is capable of scoring from the perimeter, but is only shooting 31.4% from deep on the year. Allen leads the team in assists at 4.7 per contest.

The Aggies are a highly-efficient offensive team, ranking 38th in the nation in points per game and 14th in field goal percentage. Utah State is also 48th in three-point percentage, 17th in assists and 20th in assist/turnover ratio.

Advertisement

Villanova’s keys to victory:

1. Slow down Collins Jr. and Falslev: Easier said than done, of course. Collins Jr. comes from Virginia Tech and Vanderbilt, so you know he won’t be intimidated playing against a school like Villanova. Falslev (along with Templin and Allen) played in the 7/10 game against UCLA last year, with Falslev scoring a team-high 17 points on 6/17 from the floor. This time around should be more comfortable for the Mountain West Player of the Year. Look for Tyler Perkins to match up with Falslev, hopefully using his strength as an advantage. The duo averages 33.5 points per game. I would think the sweet spot would be 30 or below.

2. Do not play at the Aggies’ tempo: Utah State averages 83 points per game, whereas Villanova averages 77.6. The Wildcats are 22-5 on the season when holding the opponents to below 80, and 2-3 when the giving up 80 or more. As the adage says, it’s easier to slow the game down than to speed it up. While Utah State is only 173rd in adjusted tempo according to Torvik, Villanova is 306th. Slow the game down, use your strength to your advantage.

3. Go inside: This is not a game where the Wildcats’ lack of size should be as problematic. Duke Brennan should be able to have his way with whoever is put on him, both with and without the ball. And while Templin and Elamin have a height advantage on Malachi Palmer and Perkins, they don’t have a strength advantage. Kevin Willard talked about using both Brennan and Pierce together at the watch party on Sunday, but has since indicated he won’t be doing that in this one. Attack the rim, crash the boards and draw fouls (also please hit your freebies at the line).

Prediction: Most of the analysts and money seems to be on Utah State, and it’s understandable why. Villanova hasn’t beaten any at-large teams besides Wisconsin. Utah State is coming off of a conference championship, while the last image of the Wildcats was arguably the worst performance of the season against Georgetown. That said, this team hasn’t lost back-to-back games all season and will also be the best team that the Aggies have played all year. Give me Duke Brennan, Tyler Perkins and Devin Askew in a big moment (and hopefully, Acaden Lewis’ arrival to the bright lights). Villanova advances for an all-Wildcat match-up on Sunday in San Diego.