Experts say all of Utah could be in for an active fire season this summer despite different weather trends this winter, which is why Utahns should be vigilant over the next few months.
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah’s northern half landed an average snowpack this winter, which helped ease some parts of the region out of a drought that had formed the summer before.
That wasn’t the case in central and southern Utah, which account for more than 40% of the state that is either in severe or extreme drought. However, the near-record-low snowpack in some parts of the state could help draw in monsoonal moisture this summer, potentially easing the drought and some associated impacts, such as wildfire risk.
Despite these differing trends, both northern and southern Utah could be in for an active fire season this summer, said Basil Newmerzhycky, a meteorologist for Great Basin Predictive Services, which helps forecast risk in the state.
“(We’re) definitely looking at a really good potential for a much busier fire season than we’ve had the last two or three years,” he said, standing in front of maps projecting Utah’s expected fire danger over the next three months taped to the side of a firetruck.
This possibility is why state leaders gathered alongside local, state and federal firefighters Tuesday to address the upcoming fire season ahead of the unofficial start of summer.
“I worry that we’ve gotten a little complacent when it comes to — as a public — when it comes to fire danger,” said Gov. Spencer Cox. “We’ve been pretty fortunate the past five years. … That being said, I’m not convinced that’s going to continue — at least the piece of us getting lucky with Mother Nature.”
Utah’s fire outlook
Utah’s fire outlook hasn’t changed much in recent weeks. Fire potential is normal statewide, but southern Utah risks are expected to increase to above-normal by June, as mid- and high-elevation areas that received some precipitation this winter dry out. Newmerzhycky estimates many of those areas could dry out by the first week of June, depending on how many late-season storms form.
Those conditions could last through July across south-central Utah before potentially dropping back to normal statewide by August, according to Great Basin Predictive Services.
Fire risk could drop back to normal because long-range outlooks favor summer monsoon returning to the region by the second half of meteorological summer.
Experts point out there is often a correlation between poor snowpack and productive monsoons, which would benefit southern and central Utah should that come to fruition this summer. However, Newmerzhycky cautioned that more cold and wet storms like the one that passed through the region this weekend could disrupt monsoon timing.
“It’s actually a mixed blessing. It’s good in the short term, but that kind of weather pattern eventually leads to a potential delay of the monsoonal formation,” he said of the recent storm activity. “If we get one or two more cold fronts, some showers and cool temperatures … through the end of May and early June, that could delay the onset of the monsoon.”
It’s even possible that the state could lose out on monsoon moisture, as it did in 2020, something that he calls the “nonsoon.”
Conditions aren’t as dire in northern Utah because of the snowpack, but long-range outlooks suggest parts of the region could miss out on the monsoonal moisture. While it’s not enough for above-normal conditions to emerge, Newmerzhycky added that fires can still consume “tens of thousands of acres” even when conditions are normal in July and August.
“It looks like the way things are staged, everybody gets a little bit — starting with the south and progressively going to the north,” he said, summing up the outlook.
Preparing for a potentially ‘busier’ season
Utah’s wildfire season is off to a slow start. There have been 157 wildfires that scorched 1,086 acres of land since the year began, according to data collected by state and federal firefighting agencies. It follows a few consecutive seasons of less-active fire seasons, largely because firefighters have been able to extinguish most fires before they reached 10 acres.
That’s the good news. The bad news? State and federal land managers say there are plenty of “carryover fuels” from the past two years of productive winters, before this winter’s mixed bag, that they are concerned about.
Most of this year’s largest fires to date are prescribed burns, which were conducted on top of other offseason projects seeking to reduce the state’s fire risks.
“Our crews are still fighting fires, just not the ones that have not started yet,” said Chris Delaney, state fire management officer for the Bureau of Land Management.
However, firefighting agencies are concerned that 86% of this year’s fires to date were determined to be human-caused. They’re calling on people to take steps to reduce human-caused fires as outdoor recreation picks up beginning Memorial Day weekend.
Utah Fire Sense tips
- Check fire restrictions ahead of starting a campfire or doing any other activity that could spark a fire. It’s also important to check for red flag warnings.
- Keep all fires to a manageable size. Never leave a fire unattended, and always have enough water available when extinguishing a campfire. Do not burn on windy days, and make sure you have tools to suppress a fire or communication ready before burning something.
- Use the “drown, stir and feel” method when putting out a campfire.
- Make sure there aren’t any chains dragging on your vehicle and that your brakes and other vehicle parts are properly maintained.
- Never park on or drive over dry vegetation.
- Only target shoot in areas where it is allowed. Use an appropriate backdrop away from rocks or vegetation. Bring a shovel and water or a fire extinguisher with you when shooting outdoors.
- Exploding targets are not allowed on any public lands. Fireworks are also prohibited on all public lands, and are only permitted in some areas at times in July to celebrate July Fourth and Pioneer Day.
- More tips can be found at utahfiresense.org.
Creating a defensible space
State and fire officials also urge Utahns to take steps to protect their homes from future wildfires by creating a “defensible space.”
Tips for that include:
- Keep trees, bushes and other plants at least 5 feet away from your home. Use gravel, pavers or concrete instead of combustible mulch, and minimize furniture or planters on decks.
- Clear all dead plants, grass and weeds within 30 feet of the home.
- Remove all dead or dry plants, grass, leaves, pine needles and weeds from lawns, roofs and gutters.
- Store wood in a vegetation-free area like a gravel spot.
The governor also issued an executive order to prepare for the potentially active season before it starts. Despite federal cuts, he said he expects the state to be “fully staffed” when it comes to fighting fires, while a report that his order calls for will help outline ways to prevent the same types of catastrophic fires that ravaged California in January.
“It really is, ‘Hey, let’s look at everything. Let’s imagine the worst-case scenario and prepare for that,’” Cox said.
Source: Utah News