Trump support drops in Utah, driven by religious voters

After months of floating above 50% approval in Utah during his second term, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating dropped underwater in the Beehive State in April, driven largely by flagging support among Republicans and religious voters.

A new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by Morning Consult shows that more than half (54%) of Utah voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, outweighing the 44% of voters who said they approve.

That’s a major swing from last month when it was almost the opposite: In March, 51% of Utah voters said they approved of Trump’s job performance compared to 46% who disapproved.

It’s the first time in recent memory the president has had such a pendulum swing in the state. But that swing appears to be unique to Utah as national polling did not show a dramatic shift in either direction among Republicans or religious voters.

Both groups, though, had a major drop in Utah.

“What’s interesting about this particular poll is, yes (Trump’s) underwater — but it’s where that movement is coming from,” said Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute at the University of Utah.

About 83% of Republican voters nationwide approved of Trump’s job performance, holding steady from the last Deseret News/Hinckley Institute national poll in February that found 86% of GOP voters in the same camp.

However, only 74% of Utah Republicans said they approved of Trump’s performance in April — a 10-point drop from the month before. Twenty-two percent of Utah GOP voters said they disapproved of his performance.

While it’s not clear what exactly caused the dip, there are several likely factors at play such as the Trump administration’s shifting strategy with the war in Iran, its inconsistent messaging on the war’s objectives, and the president’s recent social media posts, including a depiction of Trump as a Christ-like figure and his posts targeting Pope Leo XIV.

Iran war emerges as primary factor

The prime suspect in the case of Trump’s dwindling approval ratings in Utah is the war in Iran — which would explain why there was such a drastic drop among Utah voters in just the last month.

“The important thing to remember is, polls are just snapshots in time. And this poll came at a very interesting time, and one of the key driving forces here is the war in Iran,” Perry said. “In this survey, President Trump’s handling of this war is lower than his overall job approval, which shows that there’s a lot of division and a lack of support on that.”

In the last Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll, the military action had only just begun, and the duration of the conflict and its impacts were still unclear. But now, more than a month later, the picture is vastly different, and Utah voters are increasingly unhappy with how the president is handling the war.

“When we ask specifically about Trump’s handling of the conflict, Utah voters give him even worse marks than his overall performance,” said Matt Monday, director of public affairs for Morning Consult, which administered the survey. “Given the war’s salience, we think it’s doing most of the work here.”

The numbers reflect that sentiment. When asked specifically about Trump’s handling of the conflict in Iran, only 41% of Utah voters say they approve — 3 percentage points lower than his overall approval rating in the state. A majority of voters (54%) say they disapprove.

Those numbers boost the theory of Iran’s influence on Trump’s falling approval in Utah, especially when paired with the fact that the only other Cabinet official who saw a downward turn in approval ratings since March was Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — the main Trump administration official associated with the war.

About 40% of Utah voters said they disapprove of Hegseth’s job performance while 39% said they were in favor. Another 21% said they were unsure.

Trump loses support among religious voters in Utah

Another factor for Trump’s lower approval ratings in Utah stems from a loss of support among religious voters.

Those dwindling numbers could be from a “secondary theory,” Monday said: Trump’s social media activity. The most recent poll surveyed respondents between April 15-20 — two weeks after Trump issued an expletive-laden post on Easter Sunday, and just two days after posting a now-deleted AI image that depicted him as a Jesus-like figure.

Trump’s approval rating among religious groups took a dip after those posts, particularly in Utah. About 51% of Christians in Utah said they approve of Trump’s performance in the latest poll, a significant drop from the 63% who said the same in March.

That’s a far cry from national polling that showed 50% of Christian voters nationwide approved of Trump’s performance in April — a one-point increase from the last national poll in February.

The drop in support among Utah’s religious groups was especially prevalent among members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. While a majority of the demographic (54%) still approves, that’s a 9-point drop from the month before.

About 43% of church members said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance in April, up from the 35% who said the same in March.

“Utah voters, they tend to respond not just to policy, but they do respond to tone, particularly when it touches on things like religion or respect for institutions. That’s certainly what we saw in one big month,” Perry said. “You put all of these together into one, into really a small period of time, and it has had a direct impact on his approval rating here in the state of Utah.”

“Utah voters are patient,” he added, “but they do have a threshold.”

The poll surveyed 815 Utahns between April 15-20 and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The national poll surveyed 2,057 U.S. voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.